March 2, 2008 Will Richardson | will@willmax.com My Bradford Pear trees are just about in full bloom--and of course there’s a freeze warning in effect for tomorrow night! These poor trees seem to get fooled by Mother Nature just about every other year! Hopefully the weatherman’s forecast won’t come to pass.
Speaking of forecasts, the various news outlets all seem to be on the same page when it comes to forecasting gloom and doom for the housing market, especially when it comes to foreclosures. One recent headline stated: “Foreclosures Up 76% nationally in 2007”. True statement. But what the headline doesn’t tell you is how low the total percentage of homes in foreclosure is. How low? About one-percent. Or, expressed another way, 99% of the home in the U.S. are not in foreclosure. In fact, over 37% of homes in the U.S. are owned outright; no mortgage, period. I guess if the headlines read: “99 Percent of Homes Are Not In Foreclosure” it wouldn’t sell many newspapers. Here’s another item that you probably won’t see in the local paper: foreclosure filings declined in Texas by 4.5% in 2007.
As I write this, the Presidential Primary vote in Texas will take place in two days. I was holding an open house this afternoon for one of my clients and had the radio on for both my enjoyment and to add a bit of “atmosphere.” In the space of three hours, I heard no less than 40 radio commercials for Barrack Obama, about half that number for Hillary Clinton and a few of John McCain’s thrown in for good measure. Any one else out there really tired of this two-year Primary Race?
Back on the subject of the so called housing “crisis”. If the stock market went up 15% a year for five years in a row, and then declined 8% one year, I don’t think any one would term that a crisis. Doesn’t even meet the criteria for a “correction” (10% decline), much less a Bear Market (20% decline). So why is it a “crisis” if house prices decline one year, especially after years of uninterrupted gains? The only reasonable answer to that question, at least in my mind, is it isn’t. In the equities business it would more likely be called a buying opportunity.
Will Richardson
RE/MAX Town & Country
214-543-7600